I'm not going to rain on anyone's parade. Hurricane Irene will do that starting Saturday. The forecast states the possibility (where the smart money is) of 5 to 10 inches of rain in Central New England for this weekend. Here's what it means for the three rivers that I write about:
The Millers - A flow in excess of 2000cfs is a real possibility. In June of '08 a 3 to 4 inch storm drove the river from 250cfs to 1600cfs in 30 hours. It took a few weeks for it to come down. The same happened in '09. This river doesn't like to give up it's water!! Wadable water may have to wait until September.
The EB - It will soar up like a rocket and then drop like a rock! In the Summer of '09 I saw an 1800cfs flow fall to 500cfs in about three days. Lack of big tribs means a quick drop in the flow.
The Swift - The above photo is of the spillway in July of "09 when the overflow brought the river up to 700cfs where it stayed until the water stopped going over the spillway. It took a few weeks, at least. The key for this storm is whether there is enough unused capacity in Quabbin to collect the rainfall and still not breach the spillway. Also remember that Quabbin overflow is always a delayed reaction - the "pond" has to fill up first and then the river rises. That could be days AFTER the hurricane passes. Also realize that the rain that falls ON the Catch & Release areas will be of little consequence. It's what happens behind the dam that counts. My prediction - a 5 to 10 inch storm will cause overflow and the Swift will go up. I hope I'm wrong!
Check the stream gauge links at the bottom of this blog for updates.
Have fun tying flies!!
Ken
15 comments:
Ken,
if we get 10-15" of rain this weekend as projected, I dare say we will not see any fishing ont he Millers for at least 3 weeks.
-BT
Browntrout,
Yours is a good assumption. The latest report says that the rainfall will amount from 5 to 10 inches. If that is correct it will be "See you in September" for the Millers.
For the younger readers "See You In September" was a giant musical hit in the early 1960's. It had nothing to do with rainfall or fly fishing.
I hope that these forecasts are all wrong. It would be nice to catch a break.
Ken
Looks like pond fishing for a while.
Everyone be safe this weekend.
Sam
Ipswich, MA
Looks like the Swift flow increased to 117 yesterday - drawdown? or simply following the low flow rules of the Ct River?
In either case, I like the higher flow.
Tightlines guys.
Bob O: the USGS site on the Ct River at Montegue City had not been at 4400cfs or less for 3 consecutive prior to the Swift's increase. I would assume this is a draw down in prep for some serious rain.
Al
Every lake with a flood control dam like Tully Lake in Royalston or any dam that can let out water is drawing down in anticipation of the hurricane. Too bad about this Hurricane the flying ants just started hatching like mad yesterday and one river I was on had a huge amount of isonychia spinners in the evening, just too bad the river was mudded up from the recent rains
Tom,
I had swarms of winged ants Friday afternoon on the Swift. They were a red/brown and ran about a size 20 and I couldn't believe how quickly they appeared on the water.
It seems that the last week of August is the time for ants to be on the move. You can count on the ants showing up on almost every river in Central England on this week!
Ken
The good news is the Erving Station is reading 900s now, and it seems to be dropping! I'm optimistic fishing could be back next week!! :)
Looks like the Millers in South Royalston is only at 322 cfs which should be fishable levels, the same cant be said down in Erving, at least not now. I wonder if the forest road for the EB was damaged or blocked by falling trees, that river usually comes down pretty fast and I cant wait to fish there again
Don't draw conclusions too early. The low S.Royalston flow was the result of the hold back at Birch Hill. On Tuesday (8/30) the flow was in the low 300 cfs BUT the flow of the Otter River and Priest Brook, flowing into the Millers above Birch Hill, was about 600cfs. Water was held back. Now, as I write (7:00pm on 8/30) the S. Royalston flow has increased to 700 cfs. Water is being released!!
The question is how long will this release last. We will see.
Thanks Ken for the inside scoop on S. Royalston, I thought it was odd that it wasn't at high water levels like everywhere else. But its all changed.
1230 and rising right now.....
At least the swift looks fine in terms of flow. Anyone fished it after sunday?
For lovers of EB, things look grim. The flows at Knightville are near 4,000cfs, which is higher than I have ever seen in my 15+ years of fishing it. Knowing that even small storms can cause flash floods, I fear what this epic storm may have produced in damage. The road in could be gone, numerous deadfall and the pools could very well be filled in with silt and stone. If anyone lives out that way and has knowledge, it would be greatly appreciated.
-BT
Browntrout,
Remember that the EB gauge is BELOW the Knightville flood dam which held back water during the storm. Now it's releasing water which accounts for the high flow rate. The Gorge is probably back to a close to normal flow if the West Branch is any indication. It would be interesting to see how the road is. I'll be there tomorrow evening to check it out.
Ken,
If you have time to get out there and provide us an update it would be greatly appreciated. I cannot imagine the road being drive able, but then again you never know.
Look forward to hearing your "conditions" report and if you just happen to have the rod in the back seat for a cast or two, why not?
BT
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